Trust won or not, market to remain shaky

Since 1990, Sensex Has Shown No Clear Trend Ahead Of Trial Of Strength

Vijay Gurav MUMBAI

 EVEN as the Congress-led UPA government faces a trust vote on Tuesday, the two-day rally in the stock market appears to suggest that investors are confident about the government's survival. But the sharp gains in the past couple of sessions have come amid cautious optimism, which was evident many times in the past too, when ruling parties were in trouble.
    A look at the Sensex's behaviour ahead of a no-confidence motion in Parliament that different governments faced since 1990 shows that the market did not witness any clear trend (sustained downward or upward movement), as investors mostly preferred to remain on the sidelines till political problems were resolved. Notwithstanding the 1000-point rally in the Sensex in the past couple of sessions, there is uncertainty if the government will be able to survive the trust vote, say brokers. Besides next week's political developments, the market will also be influenced by many other factors like crude oil prices, inflation and first quarter numbers, they say.
    "Friday's upsurge was mostly because of a fall in oil prices. There is also a feeling that the government will survive and so the nuclear deal will go through," said KR Choksey Shares and Securities chairman Kisan Choksey. If oil prices soften further, it would help ease inflationary pressures, as India is a major importer of crude oil, says Mr Choksey. In April 1999, the then BJPled coalition government was in trouble as the AIADMK party withdrew its support to the government. The Sensex ended weak on most trading days during the month. It, however, gained sharply by 216 points on April 16, a day before vote of confidence. The Sensex slipped 246 points after the BJP lost the no-confidence motion by a single vote on April 17.
    On April 11, 1997, the then prime minister HD Deve Gowda lost the confidence vote after the Congress withdrew support to the United Front government. The market gained on most trading days during the month, before ending with a gain of 35 points, or 1%, at 3,633.7 on the day of the trust vote.
    Among other notable occasions of vote of confidence, Atal Bihari Vajpayee resigned before the confidence motion was put to vote on May 28, 1996. The BJP then could not prove the majority. The market remained week ahead of the vote of confidence. On November 7, 1990, VP Singh lost the vote of confidence after the BJP withdrew its support to the government. The Sensex recorded some gains ahead of the event, before ending 49 points up, or 3.7%, at 1,381 on the day of the vote.
    On Friday, the Sensex climbed 524 points, or 4%, to end at 13,635 while Nifty jumped 145 points, or 3.7%, to close at 4,092, on the back of a sharp fall in oil prices. "Crude is weak below $135 and once it breaches $129 levels the price could fall towards $121 levels. If the government survives the market may move up towards 4200 and 4600 in a short span of time" said Alex Mathew, research head of Geojit Financial Services.
    vijay.gurav@timesgroup.com