Met now says monsoon to be below normal

FINALLY, the meteorological department has changed its mind on the rains and its new finding is a bother: this year's south-west monsoon would be below normal for the country as a whole — the first time in four years — and not normal as forecast earlier. The silver lining is that there is little chance of a drought, with rains in July-August expected to make up for the initial deficit in the North West, the main grain-growing regions of Punjab and Haryana.
    This is the latest official prognosis of the rains, a lifeline to the economy.
    Both the north-eastern and peninsular regions of the country are likely to get below-normal rains while the North West would have deficient rains. Central India, which is yet to receive rains, is expected to have a normal monsoon.
    Industry, meanwhile, is anxious, but not pushing the panic button yet, waiting to see how the rains progress. Ficci president Harsh Pati Singhania said, "If the delay in monsoon is for some days, it may not be an issue of concern. However, if the agricultural season misses the monsoon by a considerable time frame, we may have a problem on our hands. In both the cases, the government should be prepared to take corrective action in order to ensure that food prices are kept in check." The Centre too is keeping a close eye on the progress of the rains. It will meet state agriculture ministers on Thursday in the Capital.
    Some states are taking proactive steps to make use of available water through irrigation. The Punjab government has, in this sweltering heat, banned the use of air conditioners in all government offices, boards and corporations in the state with immediate effect till June 30, 2009. This is to ensure eight hours of uninterrupted power supply to the farm sector for planting paddy.
    The India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s longrange forecast update for the 2009 south west monsoon season, issued Wednesday, said, "Quantitatively, monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of the long period average, with a model error of +/- 4%."
    Minister of state for science and technology Prithviraj Chavan told mediapersons here: "The south west monsoon from June to September is likely to be below normal." The IMD, too, meanwhile, sought to underplay the role of El Nino in the poor monsoon progress thus far, going to the extent of vehemently denying that any "drought-like" situation prevailed. 'Contingency plans are in place'
"THERE is as yet no monsoon delay in North India. Yes, there is a 50% rainfall deficiency but that is not a drought-like situation under any circumstance. Sufficient rainfall in July, which is the key month for sowing, may cover the June deficit," IMD director BP Yadav said.
    IMD also stressed that rainfall would likely be made up in quantum in both July and August. Deputy director general (weather forecasting), Pune, AB Muzumdar said, dismissing the significance attached to the phenomenon by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). "This phenomenon occurs after every three to four years, but it has no direct cause and effect relationship with the monsoon in India."
    However, some crops like pepper and cardamom may have suffered irreparable damage this year already. The rains in July will be crucial for the southern and eastern regions and will affect the demand for fertilisers, according to Kapil Mehan, ED, Tata Chemicals.
    Kharif, or summer-sown crops, accounts for some 52% of the total agricultural output of the country besides ensuring a substantial part of the water stored in key reservoirs for the winter or Rabi crop season. However, Mr Chavan dismissed suggestions that the situation was "worrisome" enough to suggest a drought or a substantially negative impact on agricultural output.
    Referring to contingency plans and strategies that have been in place since the 2003, post the 2004 drought-like situation that prevailed virtually countrywide, he maintained, "Contingency plans are in place and in readiness with every department of the government, in the event of excess or deficient rains." The government is going by weather scientists who expect the monsoon system to gather momentum in the next couple of days and most parts of the country to receive "good rains" in July and August, key months for the farm sector. In fact, IMD's forecast for the next five days has said that Gujarat, parts of Maharashtra and the Konkan coast will receive monsoon rainfall over the next two-three days.
    FMCG companies, which have been reaping the benefits of robust rural demand over the past five-six quarters, are hoping that the delay in monsoon in some parts of the country remains a short-term phenomenon. Companies say a week's or 10 day's delay in the rains is unlikely to dent booming rural sales. They, however, add that a longer dry spell would begin impacting consumer sentiments. Apart from three good years of monsoon, factors like higher prices of farm produce and farm loan write-offs have contributed equally to increased rural prosperity. Said Sunil Duggal, CEO of Dabur which makes brands like Vatika and Real: "A week's delay won't bother us, and we don't expect much contraction in demand. Besides, the bigger generator of demand is not so much monsoon by itself, but overall government policies such as employment and loan waivers, which lead to rural consumers turning reasonably wealthy. But we hope the delay in rains is not drastic."
    The sentiment was echoed by others. Ravi Sud, CFO, Hero Honda Motors, said, "Monsoon is delayed, but we have to wait for another 2-3 weeks to see the actual impact. If a large part of the country does not get good rains, it would impact demand, especially in the rural market, which in turn, would have an adverse impact on the entire economy.
    Videocon group chairman Venugopal Dhoot was worried that a further delay in the monsoon would depress GDP growth. However, some, like Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers' chairman US Jha found consolation in the forecast of "more than 100% rains in August".
    According to the IMD forecast, rainfall over the country as a whole in the month of July, on which the government is banking heavily given the 45% deficiency in the rainfall in June so far, would be 93% of its LPA and in the month of August, it is likely to be 101% of LPA. In comparision, monsoon rainfall in 2008 was marked by large temporal variations for the country as a whole, as rainfall was 24% above LPA in June and in July, it was 17% below LPA. The rainfall was near normal in August and September, as it was 3% and 1% below the LPA. Despite this, the year provided record wheat and rice output, as a result of which the government has procured almost 50 million tonne of foodgrain for the welfare and PDS schemes. However, sugarcane, coarse cereals and oilseeds showed lower output.
    Wednesday's forecast has said that the rainfall in north-west India would be 81% of the LPA (612 mm average) with a variation of 19%. Against this, the region received rainfall of 107% of LPA in 2008 although only 96% was forecast. Central India is likely to receive rainfall to the tune of 99% of the LPA (994 mm average). In 2008, the actual rainfall of 96% although the forecast was 101% of LPA. In north-east India, IMD has forecast only 92% of LPA rainfall compared to the actual 94% received last year. And for the southern peninsula, where the monsoons has been poor despite an early arrival (May 23) this year, IMD has forecast rainfall to the tune of 93% of the LPA of 725 mm (average). In contrast, the peninsular regions received 96% of the LPA rainfall in 2008.
    The month-long spell of 'weak monsoon' has affected the prospects of a number of crops across the country and many of them are likely to witness a "sharp" to "moderate" fall in production. Pepper and cardamom have been the worst hit so far followed by coconut.
    The sluggish progress of monsoon is likely to hit pepper production in the coming season, according to experts. "Though it is too early to make an estimate, the production is likely to be lower than the last year's level of 45,000 tonnes," an official of the Spices Board said.
    Being a crop that requires continuous rain, cardamom has been hit hard by the sluggish monsoon. More so because almost 70 % of the cultivation is in the hilly district of Idukki, which has received scanty rains so far.
    KK Devassia, secretary of Cardamom Growers Association, felt that after bumper crop last year, the production could be down by over 20% in the next season given the present circumstances. Even if the rain intensifies in the coming months, some of the plants may already have been damaged, he said.
    "As on Wednesday, against a normal rainfall of 53 cm in Kerala the actual stood at 32 cm indicating a shortfall of 37%,"said Santhosh, director, IMD, Thiruvananthapuram. The districts of Idukki and Wayanad, which produce close to 50% of the pepper in the country, reported a deficiency of 42% and 44% respectively.
    Weak monsoon has not affected the coconut crop so far in main producing states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. However, its impact has been felt in Karnataka, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal and Assam, according to Coconut Development Board sources. The South Indian states together account for 90% of the coconut production in the country.
    Tamil Nadu recorded a deficient rainfall of 27.5 mm of rain during the period June 1 to June 24, 2009 compared to normal rainfall of 34.3 mm, according to data available with India Meteorological Department, Chennai. However Pondicherry had a scanty rainfall, registering only 1.1 mm compared to the normal rainfall of 33.4 mm during this period.
    The state sows paddy, millets, sugarcane, pulses, oil seeds and cotton during the monsoon. "If the monsoon doesn't set within one week, there will definitely be reduction in rainfed crop areas," a senior agriculture department official told ET.

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