FORGET THE BOTTOM...THAT’S THE BOTTOM LINE

GREEN SHOOTS OR YELLOW WEEDS

With global economy on the mend, India has reached that bend on Recovery Road from where it can step on the pedal and move to top gear

THE VERDICT WAS CLEAR. IT IS NOT THE TIME to sit back and squirm. Instead, it's time for action, bold leadership and adventurous contrarian thinking. A new global economic order is being forged after one of the worst slowdowns in living memory, and India and Indian companies can play a big role if they seize the chance offered to them and look for opportunities. 

    "Weeds are good," declared Anand Mahindra, vice-chairman, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), at the ET Jury Roundtable organised by The Economic Times on the theme, "Green Shoots or Yellow Weeds: Is the Recovery for Real? "Weeds grow uncontrollably, and they are good for the economy," he added. 
    His co-panellists and members of the jury of The Economic Times Awards for Corporate Excellence were equally insistent on the fact that the time to act for Indian companies is now. Wipro chairman Azim Premji was heartened by the fact that stability had returned, but warned that a runaway fiscal deficit could end up harming the economy. Kalpana Morparia, CEO, JPMorgan India, said India is the only major economy in the world where there is a balance between investment and consumption. "In fact, I don't think we should be talking about the green shoots, we should be talking about the bloom," she added. The monsoon can dampen the mood, but it will do nothing to stop the green shoots, she added. 
    The impressive cast of CEOs, top bankers, brokers and fund managers listened to some tough talk as well from some of the panellists who warned that we have not seen the worst yet. Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, CEO, Nokia Corporation and chairman of the ET Awards Jury, warned that businesses are still adjusting and would take some time to start growing strongly. The global stimulus packages have to be unwound, repaid and the recovery could turn out to be a jobless recovery. 
    Aditya Birla group chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla said he is seeing more of yellow weeds than green shoots. 'India on a strong wicket' CONSUMER confidence is still low, he added, and though businesses may seem more confident, it is very unlikely that consumer growth is coming back any time soon. With unemployment running high in many economies, it will take some time before we can talk of a recovery. 
    Congress leader Digvijay Singh said India has not been affected very much by the global recession, and that the drought would not be such a big hindrance to the recovery. "There are many areas where there have been floods. The delayed monsoon has only impacted paddygrowing areas," he added. 
    The panellists unanimously felt that India was on a strong wicket, and that immense opportunities exist in the Indian market for companies to tap into. Mr Mahindra added that the signal that he is getting from American companies is that offshoring is likely to increase despite what President Obama is saying. 
    "The push on getting break-even levels lower is only going to increase offshoring while consumers are going to become more value-oriented," he added.

RECESSION-PROOF: Kumar Mangalam Birla, Digvijaya Singh, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Azim Premji, Anand Mahindra & Kalpana Morparia read the signals of recovery