Mamata on verge of exit from UPA

ROAD TO RASHTRAPATI BHAVAN

Pranab Frontrunner As Cong Seeks To Win Over Mulayam

New Delhi: Recovering from the stunning ambush on Wednesday, the Congress appears set to wean away Mulayam Singh Yadav from his new-found alliance with Mamata Banerjee and is on his way to nominate Pranab Mukherjee for the President's post. 
    In what could precipitate Mamata Banerjee's exit from the UPA, the Congress has, encouraged by signs of Mulayam's rethink, decided to take on the Trinamool chief by sticking to the finance minister as its nominee for the July 19 presidential polls. The Trinamool chief remained firm on her stand to oppose Mukherjee as well as Vice-President Hamid Ansari, saying she was ready to face the consequences. She has decided to stay away from the UPA meeting on Friday. 
    Although her possible departure will not reduce the UPA to a minority as the coalition can more than make up for the loss of 19 Trinamool Lok Sabha MPs with the support of SP, BSP and Mamata's arch-rival, the Left. However, such an eventuality will enhance the Congress's vulnerability to other partners and Samajwadi Party, who are adept at leveraging their support in full: restricting the elbow room for the government and strengthening those favouring early elections as an escape from the pain of managing a disparate combination. Mulayam is among those who feel that they can profit from an early Lok Sabha poll, while the divergence of the Left on economic issues remains stark. 
    But that does not seem to be the Congress's chief worry at the moment, with the party leadership appearing to be fully focused on ensuring the election of a Congressperson to the titular position. "True, we will face more uncertainty; perhaps leading to an early poll. But the issue is that whether we should go into the election after conceding the prestigious contest or after having our nominee in Rashtrapati Bhavan," said a Congress functionary, explaining the party's priority. 
    The Congress can ensure the win of its nominee in the presidential election without Mamata's support because her exit may help it rope in the Left, which has more votes in the electoral college. 
    The decision to stare down the Trinamool chief was being rationalized also on grounds that she was in any case on the lookout for forcing an early Lok Sabha election in the hope of bettering her tally. 
    The SP had on Wednesday stung the Congress by teaming up with Mamata after consistently promising support to a nominee of Sonia Gandhi and even lobbying for Mukherjee in secret talks carried out for almost a month, upsetting the Congress's arithmetic. 
    By Thursday evening, the Samajwadis were switching tracks again, speaking of the possibility of consensus on Congress nominees. 
BLOW BY BLOW 
10am Pranab Mukherjee meets Sonia Gandhi. Antony joins deliberations 25 minutes later 
10.45am Chidambaram reaches 10, Janpath. Cong leaders feel Mamata's challenge must be met and Manmohan defended. DMK's Baalu meets Sonia at 11am 
12 noon Janardhan Dwivedi says Cong rejects choices offered by Mamata-Mulayam. Says Manmohan can't be spared. Attacks Mamata for divulging in public details of private discussion 
4pm Pawar meets Sonia. Indications that Cong wants to wrap up presidential nomination quickly 
5pm SP leader Ramgopal Yadav sets wires buzzing by talking of consensus arising from talks. Indicates Pranab may be acceptable 
5.30pm Cong core group meets, decides to call UPA meet on Friday. Pranab re-emerges as frontrunner 
7pm Mamata reaches Mulayam's residence, says Kalam will make a good candidate. She says that if UPA wants her out, so be it. Significantly, Mulayam doesn't address media after the meeting DRAMA DECONSTRUCTED 1 TMC-Cong alliance on verge of break-up. This means Mulayam will now play key role. Cong will try to build bridges with Left. Pranab already in touch with CPM's Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and Biman Bose 2 Pranab reemerges as top choice for President. Cong reckons it can't accept Didi's diktat and it must have own man as President 3 Early polls seem more likely. with SP won't be for Congress which sees Mulayam as a demanding ally. Congress won't snap ties with BSP either 4 Regional parties like BJD, AIADMK, TMC likely to coordinate to form a loose front. These parties may cooperate with BJP informally 5^No overt gain for NDA, but won't mind weaker Cong. Trouble 
with JD(U) a weak spot Pranab's elevation as Prez to ring in reshuffle The likely elevation of finance minister Pranab Mukherjee as President is sure to trigger changes in the Manmohan Singh government with several contenders for the finance minister's job, while there could be a vacancy in Rail Bhavan too. P Chidambaram, Montek Singh Ahluwalia and C Rangarajan, who heads the PM's economic advisory council, are frontrunners for FM, while others seen to be in the fray include Kamal Nath, Jairam Ramesh, Anand Sharma and Kapil Sibal. P 13 NDA rethink today as SP wavers on Kalam The BJP-led NDA will have to redo its presidential poll math when it meets on Friday as Mulayam Singh Yadav appeared unsure on A P J Abdul Kalam barely 24 hours after proposing his name with Mamata Banerjee. The Trinamool chief on Thursday reiterated that Kalam was her candidate but Mulayam's stance raised doubts on whether the ex-President would enter the fray. Kalam, sources said, has stressed he will not enter the race unless he is confident of winning. P 13 800cr riding on poll, punters back Pranab Cricket, make way. Some Rs 800 crore is riding on bets on who will be India's next President. The punters' pick is Pranab Mukherjee (odds being 60 paisa for every rupee) with PM Manmohan Singh a distant second (Rs 6.5 for every rupee) while Vice-President Hamid Ansari and Somnath Chatterjee are all but ruled out. If Ansari manages a sneak-in, the risk-takers stand to make Rs 12 for every rupee while Kalam's backers will make Rs 8 per rupee. P 13 

Mamata Banerjee leaves after meeting with Mulayam Singh Yadav at his residence in New Delhi on Thursday

TALKING TOUGH 
Hum kisi ke dhamki se nahin darte…humko koi dhamki dega to hum dekh lenge…I am a simple man, I am a small party —MAMATA BANERJEE

We can't afford to spare Dr Manmohan Singh as PM —JANARDHAN DWIVEDI

I told Sonia that whoever UPA nominates, we will support —SHARAD PAWAR