Montek Rules Out 9% Growth During 12th Planv

REALITY BITES

'Even a lower target of 8-8.5% can't be taken for granted'

 India is unlikely to return to the 9% growth trajectory over the next five years, said Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia. 

Projecting a somewhat bleak picture for the 12th five-year plan (2012-17), Ahluwalia said that while 9% growth during the period won't be feasible, even a lower target of 8-8.5% can't be taken for granted. "It's not possible to think of an average of 9% (in the 12th Plan, 2012-17). I think somewhere between 8 and 8.5 % is feasible," Ahluwalia said on Friday, on the sidelines of a conference of state planning boards and departments. 
"When I say feasible... that will require major effort. If you don't do that, there's no God-given right to grow at 8%," he added. 
He said that given that the world economy took a huge knock during 2011-12, impacting India's growth rate as well, the GDP growth in India in the first year of the 12th plan (2012-13) is likely to be about 6.5-7%. 
The Planning Commission had last year targeted an average growth rate of 9% in its Approach document to the 12th plan, which was approved by the Prime Minister-led National Development Council (NDC), the country's apex decision-making body. 
Adding that the growth rate projections were his own estimations, Ahluwalia said the Planning Commission is yet to take a decision to revise its growth target downwards. He hinted that he will soon discuss the final growth rate target with members of the Commission before putting it up before NDC for approval by September. 
The preparation of the plan document is on track. "We have targeted the National Development Council meeting in September. I think we are on track," he said. Before going to NDC, there would be a full Planning Commission meeting – likely to be held by the end of July – that will be presided over by the Prime Minister and Cabinet Ministers to approve the document. 
"I am hopeful that the Planning Commission would have approved the 12th Plan in the second half of August. Then it will go to the Cabinet," Ahluwalia said. About inflation, he said it should not be more than 5% during 12th Plan period.