CLOUDS REMAIN End-of-Season Rainfall to Erase a Part of Drought’s Footprint Crop sowing picks up, reservoirs fill up but govt still worried about rising food prices

An unexpected surge in rainfall since the last week of July has soaked parched fields in many parts of the country and filled up depleted reservoirs, limiting the impact of drought-like conditions since June, although the government is still concerned about rising food prices. 

Rainfall has revived — ironically, after the weather office stopped issuing forecasts of a normal monsoon — significantly in oilseed-growing Madhya Pradesh, where seasonal rainfall is now above normal, while in Gujarat the deficit has narrowed to 48% from over 70% recently. The country's total monsoon deficit, which was an alarming 30% at the end of June, has gradually contracted to 15%. Parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Rajasthan are still dry, and face a shortage of drinking water. Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar told Parliament on Tuesday that the Rajasthan and Karnataka governments have declared a drought in some parts of these states. 
Rainfall is scanty in Punjab and Haryana, too, but these states have good irrigation facilities, prompting Pawar to say they do not face drought-like conditions. However, rainfall has been heavy in states such as Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh and Kerala this month. Crop Sowing Gathers Pace 
Some districts in states such as Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh and Kerala were lashed by flash floods. But this also helped fill up reservoirs, which will irrigate fields in the rabi season and provide drinking water until next year. 
"Rains in the past few weeks have definitely increased the water influx in reservoirs, especially in the northern, southern and central parts of the country. Some of the reservoirs are filled to 90% of capacity while the majority have risen over their half-way marks," said an official of the Central Water Commission, which monitors major reservoirs. Water level in 84 main reservoirs in India is 96% of the 10-year average. Agricultural experts said the filling up of reservoirs was a blessing. "This is a good sign. It will not only ensure supply of drinking water, but also ward off any hindrance in hydropower generation. For agriculture, it's a big boon. There will be no shortage of water for kharif crops in irrigated fields, and prospects of rabi crops, which largely depend on reservoir water for irrigation, will also improve," said RS Sharma, a senior scientist at the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. 
With the improvement in rainfall in the past few days, crop sowing has gathered pace. Total area under kharif crops is barely 6% lower than the five-year average, mostly because of the deficit in Rajasthan. Sowing has picked up even in Maharashtra, where many districts have received deficient rainfall. Sowing has increased to 90% of the target on August 13 from 83% on July 30. Sowing of cash crops like cotton and soyabean has gathered momentum in the state. 
"Sowing figures have improved due to increase in rainfall activity. There is good rainfall in Vidarbha region, which will help cotton and soyabean crops. But still, rainfall conditions in many districts of Marathwada like Beed, Jalna, Osmanabad and some parts of Aurangabad are bad. The recent rainfall in some parts of western Maharashtra has helped farmers go for fodder crops and bajra. However, the main benefit of revival in rainfall will be for the rabi crops," said Maharashtra Agriculture Commissioner Umakant Dangat. 
Late rains have also accelerated sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan. "There were vast areas unsown in Rajasthan and Gujarat. After rains in August, these areas will be cultivated, raising hopes for pulses and oilseeds. Farmers may also switch over to early sowing of potato and other vegetables in September, and get the harvest in November before starting sowing for Rabi crops," said PK Joshi, director, South Asia, International Food Policy Research Institute. Though the monsoon has improved, the government is concerned about the impact of erratic rainfall in June and July, which may reduce total farm output and raise prices of essential commodities. "Prices of certain essential items like sugar, pulses and edible oils have risen. We are in touch with every state government for coordinated efforts to control food inflation," said Food Minister KV Thomas. He said there was no shortage of foodgrain in the country, but pulses and edible oils may be in short supply due to deficient rains. 
Traders said prices of some commodities have fallen. "In the last two weeks, prices of turmeric, soyabean, cotton have eased largely on two counts — improved monsoon in India and good rains in the US in the last two weeks. There is volatility in the market. It will be critical how prices move by end of August," said Vedika Narvekar, senior research analyst at Angel Comtrade. Food price inflation has remained just above 10% since March. Prices of vegetables, which were rising about 40% a year from March to June, rose by a relatively lower rate of 24.1% in July, government data showed. Potato prices, however, continue to rise an annual 70-75% in the past three months. Though farmers are happy over the sudden advancement of monsoon, they are agitated over the investments in agricultural inputs that they had to make based on IMD's prediction. Mohini Mohan Misra, national secretary of the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, said: "We are expecting a foodgrain production of 240 million tonnes this year as against 252 million tonnes last year, which is more or less comfortable. But we have written to Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar to compensate farmers from the disaster management fund for the investments they have made based on IMD's prediction. Farmers should get compensation at . 2,000 per acre." 
Added Raghunath Ramchandra Patil, president of Shetkari Sangathana: "Rural income in Maharashtra has been hard hit due to deficient monsoon. Farmers can only recover some of their investments during 'return monsoon', which occurs during September-October and is important for crops like jowar and bajra." But P Chengal Reddy, secretarygeneral of the Consortium of Indian Farmers Associations, feels that NREGA schemes will be able to bail out the farmers despite a less rural income on account of lesser farm produce. Economists differ on the impact of rains on Indian crops. 
(With inputs from Jayashree Bhosale in Pune)