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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

DEMOGRAPHICS WORK: Minorities, Women, Young, Poor Back Obama; Romney Sweeps White, Rural Votes


DIVIDED STATES OF AMERICA

Prez Hits Another Four, But Faces Tough 2nd Innings



Washington: US President Barack Obama won a hardfought second term to the White House after his colourful and diverse coalition of younger voters, ethnic minorities and liberal women overrode nationwide economic dissatisfaction and held off the challenge from a Republican vanguard of fading white conservative population. 
    On the face of it, Democrat Obama's victory in an economically distressed America was impressive. He won 303 of the 538 electoral votes, comfortably more than the 

270 he needed to retain the presidency, with Florida's 29 votes still to be confi rmed at the time of going to press. But the imposing Electoral College lead masked a relatively narrow margin of popular votes in battleground states that saw a tense fi nish: Overall, nationwide, Obama polled about 60 million votes to Romney's 57 million. 
    Still, it was a remarkable night for the President, the first American leader 
since World War II to win a second term in offi ce amid high unemployment and a war-sapped economy. For the triumph, he gave credit where it was due in his victory speech—"to the best campaign team in the history of politics," and in the first phone call he made after Romney conceded defeat, to the wily Bill Clinton. 
    Together they forged a coalition which will take some beating in years to come, unless the Republican Party dramatically recasts itself. The alliance consists of minority voters (Black, Latino, and Asian) worried about 

immigration laws and Republican exclusivism; bluecollar workers, particularly in the so-called Rust Belt who are grateful to Obama and his government intervention in saving the auto industry; women passionate about reproductive rights and pay parity, and a young, urban, collegiate demographic unimpressed by Republican conservatism. 

Desi doc in the House: Dr Ami Bera, 45, became only the third Indian-American to enter the House of Representatives on a Democrat ticket. Five other Indians in the fray lost. P 13 
US DOESN'T SWING BOTH WAYS Obama retained virtually all the states he won in 2008, ceding only Indiana and North Carolina to Romney. Of the 2 key swing states, he won Ohio and was leading in Florida at the time of going to press 
MAJOR CHALLENGES Fiscal Cliff: Unless Obama and the US Congress reach a deal, all Bush-era tax cuts will end on Dec 31, just as spending cuts kick in. In all, the US could be looking at tax increases of $399bn, spending cuts of $102bn and other expenses of $107bn, which could push the economy back into recession. Even if this crisis passes, Obama will have to keep dealing with a Republican-dominated House 
Foreign Policy: Obama will have to tackle a rising China, prevent Iran from going nuclear, try to resolve the civil war in Syria and oversee US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Chaotic situation in nucleararmed Pakistan could be his biggest headache Obama's American dream 2.0 Barack Obama's broad coalition gave him three key battleground states that Romney desperately needed to snatch to reach 270 electoral votes--Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. In each case they demonstrated their urban-centric power by helping Obama eke out narrow wins over Romney's narrower support base centered around mostly white, older, richer men (WORMs). 
    In Florida, minority votes in a few heavily populated southern-most counties neutralized Romney's lead from rest of the state's conservative outback. The Democrats' urban bias was even starker in Ohio. Although Romney won 90 per cent of the state's coun
ties, mostly rural and thinly populated, Obama stormtroopers pulled in blue-collar votes in the Cleveland-Toledo industrial belt where the President's interventionism saved the auto industry. Likewise, in Virginia, Romney won the state's hinterland, but Democrats polled heavily in the three Northern Virginia counties adjoining Washington DC, home to 100,000 desis and the area's tech corridor. 
    As a result, Obama won the presidency even though the country was, like in the previous three elections, largely swathed in Republican Red with Romney winning rural county after conservative county in middle-America. Romney won more states and more counties across the na
tion, but Obama out-polled him in urban areas heavily populated by minorities. Of course, there was always the big cushion of solidly Democratic California and New York, which between them have 84 electoral votes. 
    Initial numbers indicated that 45% of those who voted for Obama are racial minorities, a record. They trumped mostly white senior citizens who gave a double digit lead for Romney. College-educated voters, urban women, gay rights and immigration advocates, health care evangelists, and other liberal constituencies broadened the Obama alliance to deliver a famous win in what is deemed as a seminal moment in American politics pointing to a new coalition dharma; what one Indian analyst saw as the mandalisation of the United States.



YOBAMA! President Barack Obama with his daughters Malia (R), Sasha (L) and wife Michelle. After Bill Clinton (Chelsea) and George W Bush (Barbara and Jenna), Obama completed a hat-trick of re-elections for presidents with only daughters


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