RBI survey pegs GDP at 7.5% for 10 years

Q1 FY10 WPI Inflation Seen At Minus 1.4%

New Delhi: An RBI-conducted survey on Thursday lowered India's growth rate projection to 7.5% per annum for the next 10 years, down from 8.8% estimated earlier. "For the next 10 years, GDP is expected to grow at 7.5%, revised downwards from 8.8% in the last survey,'' RBI said releasing the results of professional forecasters' survey.
    The central bank has been conducting the survey on a quarterly basis on major macroeconomic indicators of medium-term economic developments since the quarter ended September 2007. The survey, which cut the growth forecast for 2008-09 to 6.6% from 6.8% and the 2009-10 outlook to 5.7% from 6.0%, also gave median forecasts for quarters ahead. The fourth quarter of the last fiscal 2008-09 is expected to have grown at 5.5%, down from the earlier forecast of 6.2%, the survey comprising views of 17 professional forecasters said.
    However, RBI said the results of the survey represent views of the respondent forecasters and in no way reflect the central bank's views or forecasts. The forecasters, on average, expect India to grow faster with each passing quarter, as they view growth of 5.3%, 5.6%, 6.2% and 6.5% for the four quarters of 2009-10, respectively.
    Further, the survey revised its forecast for real GDP growth for the next five years to 7.0%, down from its earlier estimate of 7.7% reported in the last survey. Meanwhile, among other indicators, the survey expects minus 1.4% WPI inflation in the first quarter of 2009-10, and 5% and 4.5% over next five and 10 years, respectively. AGENCIES
Room for rate
cuts: Subbarao
Bangalore: The RBI has said there is room for commercial banks to cut lending rates even as it reviewed performance of economy at its board meeting. "I am a regulator and (am) not an owner of banks. I can't hazard any guess over the quantum of reduction the banks can do. But I feel there is scope for reduction in lending rates,'' said RBI governor D Subbarao after the meeting of the RBI's central board here. AGENCIES

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