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FRIDAY'S surge helped the indices return to their winning ways, with the BSE Sensitive Index finishing the week 1.67% or 242.75 points higher, and the Nifty 1.43% up. The CNX Midcap Index was much stronger, with a gain of 3.82%.
Jaiprakash Associates was the biggest winner among index stocks with a 10.5% gain. The other index stocks to go up included Larsen & Toubro, ACC, HDFC and Grasim with gains between 7.7% and 5.8%. Sun Pharmaceuticals was the biggest loser among index stocks with a 13.2% loss. The other index stocks to go down included Ranbaxy Laboratories, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra and HDFC Bank with losses falling between 8.9% and 3.8%.
IVRCL Infrastructures was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 26.0% gain. The other non-index stocks to go up included Educomp Solutions, IRB Infrastructure Developers, Nagarjuna Construction, IFCI, Punj Lloyd, Suzlon Energy and Indiabulls Financial with gains falling between 14.9% and 11.1%.
Aptech was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 6.9% loss. The other non-index stocks to go down included GMR Infrastructure, Satyam Computers, Ispat Industries, Reliance Industrial Infrastructure, Tata Chemicals, Hero Honda and Tech Mahindra with losses falling between 6.8% and 2.8%.
INTERMEDIATE TREND
The market appears to have ended its intermediate downtrend on Friday, with the Sensitive Index clearing its last minor top of 14,668, and the Nifty clearing its equivalent of 4,352. The CNX Midcap went past 5,381 earlier on Wednesday to confirm an intermediate uptrend.
Quite a few stocks have already started intermediate uptrends, and it may already be safe to assume that the market is in one now. The Sensitive Index had gained 7,553 points during the preceding intermediate uptrend, and the downtrend carried a relatively small negative impact of 1,584 points. This works to a retracement of just 10%, and suggests that the bull market has considerable strength at this time.
LONG-TERM TREND
The market's long-term (i.e. major) trend is up, which means this is a bull market. Over 90% of the more heavily traded stocks entered long-term uptrends and went above their 200-day moving averages during the intermediate uptrend which has just ended. The bull market can be said to have started with the Sensitive Index's October 27, '08 low of 7,697.
TRADING & INVESTING STRATEGIES
Additional longer-term investments should have been acquired during last week's decline, as suggested last week. Stocks may still be acquired if available around Friday's levels. Current long-term portfolios should be held on to.
Banks, technology and sugar stocks are among the early leaders of the new uptrend, and some exposure in them could yield better returns. Metals and automobile stocks are among the laggards at this stage, and it would best to be underweight in them right now.
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
The global intermediate trend had also turned down around the same time as it did here, with several indices falling to multiweek lows before starting to recover at the end of the week. In fact, some of the Asian markets appear to have started fresh intermediate uptrends on Friday.
The major trends of a few global markets turned up recently. Brazil, China, Hong Kong and some of the other Asian markets are among those in bull phases, while US and European markets are not.
The BSE Sensitive Index had lost 0.5% in the twelve months that ended on Thursday, up one position to the 3rd place among 35 well-known global indices considered for the study.
Chile currently heads the list with a 0.9% gain. Shanghai, the BSE Sensitive Index, Turkey and Sri Lanka follow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 26.0% and the NASDAQ Composite has lost 21.2% over the same period. (These rankings do not take exchange rate effects into consideration) (The author is an independent technical t)
IVRCL Infrastructures was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 26.0% gain. The other non-index stocks to go up included Educomp Solutions, IRB Infrastructure Developers, Nagarjuna Construction, IFCI, Punj Lloyd, Suzlon Energy and Indiabulls Financial with gains falling between 14.9% and 11.1%.
Aptech was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 6.9% loss. The other non-index stocks to go down included GMR Infrastructure, Satyam Computers, Ispat Industries, Reliance Industrial Infrastructure, Tata Chemicals, Hero Honda and Tech Mahindra with losses falling between 6.8% and 2.8%.
INTERMEDIATE TREND
The market appears to have ended its intermediate downtrend on Friday, with the Sensitive Index clearing its last minor top of 14,668, and the Nifty clearing its equivalent of 4,352. The CNX Midcap went past 5,381 earlier on Wednesday to confirm an intermediate uptrend.
Quite a few stocks have already started intermediate uptrends, and it may already be safe to assume that the market is in one now. The Sensitive Index had gained 7,553 points during the preceding intermediate uptrend, and the downtrend carried a relatively small negative impact of 1,584 points. This works to a retracement of just 10%, and suggests that the bull market has considerable strength at this time.
LONG-TERM TREND
The market's long-term (i.e. major) trend is up, which means this is a bull market. Over 90% of the more heavily traded stocks entered long-term uptrends and went above their 200-day moving averages during the intermediate uptrend which has just ended. The bull market can be said to have started with the Sensitive Index's October 27, '08 low of 7,697.
TRADING & INVESTING STRATEGIES
Additional longer-term investments should have been acquired during last week's decline, as suggested last week. Stocks may still be acquired if available around Friday's levels. Current long-term portfolios should be held on to.
Banks, technology and sugar stocks are among the early leaders of the new uptrend, and some exposure in them could yield better returns. Metals and automobile stocks are among the laggards at this stage, and it would best to be underweight in them right now.
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
The global intermediate trend had also turned down around the same time as it did here, with several indices falling to multiweek lows before starting to recover at the end of the week. In fact, some of the Asian markets appear to have started fresh intermediate uptrends on Friday.
The major trends of a few global markets turned up recently. Brazil, China, Hong Kong and some of the other Asian markets are among those in bull phases, while US and European markets are not.
The BSE Sensitive Index had lost 0.5% in the twelve months that ended on Thursday, up one position to the 3rd place among 35 well-known global indices considered for the study.
Chile currently heads the list with a 0.9% gain. Shanghai, the BSE Sensitive Index, Turkey and Sri Lanka follow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 26.0% and the NASDAQ Composite has lost 21.2% over the same period. (These rankings do not take exchange rate effects into consideration) (The author is an independent technical t)
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